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Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
About Lie Yan Zuan Shi
Costes was involved with GREF at a time when numerous European regulators, including the ANJ, focused on tightening advertising regulations and boosting player protection frameworks. The forum thanked Costes for his dedicated service.
Replacing Miller as treasurer is Ian Angus, director of policy at the UK Gambling Commission where, since 2020, he has been closely engaged in policy development. This includes the Gambling Act white paper and its recommendations on financial risk assessments.
His appointment signals a continuation of UK influence within GREF, even as the Gambling Commission undergoes personnel changes. Ruth Evans was named the new Gambling Commission chair, taking over from Charles Counsell after over a year in the position.
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It has addressed ongoing questions faced by operators regarding when it is reasonable to close accounts, withhold or return player balances, cancel bets, or redistribute tournament prizes deemed fraudulently obtained.
Notably, it has also provided insight into the evidentiary standards French courts expect operators to meet before taking corrective actions that could be subject to legal challenge.
The regulator identified six key categories of fraud frequently encountered in online gambling. These included identity fraud, payment fraud and abusive chargebacks. It also covered in-game cheating, money-dumping and sporting event manipulation